Lincolnshire’s commercial property market looks optimistic after Brexit vote

This story is over

The commercial property market for Lincolnshire and the Midlands is cautiously optimistic after the vote for Brexit, according to the RICS UK Commercial Market Survey, Q3 2016,

An air of uncertainty still looms over parts of the Midlands commercial property market but much of the region has shown some tentative signs of optimism.

On the whole, the commercial property market across the Midlands has started showing some signs of recovery.

According to the RICS survey, occupier demand edged up in Q3 with 21% more respondents reporting a rise in demand at an all sector level, up from 7% in Q2.

This modest improvement is mostly driven by the industrial sector, with 27% more respondents reporting a rise in demand for industrial property across the region.

Demand for retail space also returned to positive following last quarter’s negative reading.

Matthew Johnson, Associate Director in the Agency Department for LSH at Lincoln: “The RICS survey confirms what we have been seeing within the commercial market locally, although industrial has been leading the way, we have seen encouraging signs across all sectors.

“Market sentiment is certainly in a more positive mood, with both leasehold and freehold enquires continuing to be strong, as confidence grows post Brexit vote.

“The amount of available investment properties currently coming to the market is reducing and demand is starting to outstrip supply, especially in the small to medium sized sector as the new build supply is being taken up by purchasers acquiring buildings ‘off plan’ before they are constructed.”

This improvement in sentiment regarding occupier demand is replicated across most regions, and whilst indicators have not retraced all the lost ground since the referendum, demand growth in the Midlands outpaced the rest of the UK with London and Scotland reporting a decline.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that political uncertainty is still having an effect on some areas of the market.

Rent expectations also recovered this quarter with a net balance of +13% of respondents now anticipating positive near term rental growth in Q3 following a reading of -2% in Q2. Again, most of the improvement is driven by the industrial sector, with 25% more respondents expecting an increase.

Investment enquiries across the Midlands have also seen an increase in Q3 after a fall in Q2. Across all sectors, 19% more respondents saw a rise in investment demand.

Foreign investment appetite also improved across all areas of the market according to the latest result, as overseas purchasers look to capitalise on the opportunity to buy prime assets given the significant discount provided by the weak pound.

As sentiment turned positive in comparison to Q2, capital value expectations also recovered noticeably. For the next three months, a net balance of 18% more respondents expect capital values to increase, with industrial and office markets expected to see the strongest gains. Meanwhile, retail expectations were flat this quarter.

In an additional question designed to capture the impact on business of the of the EU referendum, some 27% of Midlands respondents claim they have seen some evidence of firms looking to move away. Northern Ireland (36%) and Central London (26%) also returned the highest proportion of respondents seeing evidence of this trend.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: “The negative mood in the Q2 survey reflected the fact that it was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.

“The latest results suggest that the commercial market has subsequently settled down which is broadly consistent with much of the other macro news flow that has emerged over the past few months.

“In particular the rebound in our occupier demand indicator suggests that for at least the time being, the UK economy is proving relatively resilient.”